Week ending October 16, 2009

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We begin with the Weekly Scoreboard.
Table 1 summarizes recent price action for stock market indexes.
Table 2 summarizes how much of the bear market decline has been retraced for stock market indexes.
Table 3 summarizes various price projection levels for stock market indexes if 38.2%, 50% or 61.8% of the bear market decline is retraced.
Table 4 summarizes recent price action for the S&P GICS Sectors.
Table 5 summarizes how much of the bear market decline has been retraced for the S&P GICS Sectors.
Chart 1 is a swing chart of the daily S&P 500 since October 11, 2007.
Chart 2 is the daily S&P 500 and the S&P 500 advance-decline line since 2007.
Chart 3 is the daily S&P 500 and the % of S&P 500 stocks above their 200 day moving average from 2007.
Chart 4 is the daily S&P 500 and the % of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 day moving average from 2007.
Chart 5 is the daily S&P 500 with 21 day moving average and Bollinger Bands for 2009.
Chart 6 is the daily S&P 500 with 50 day moving average and Bollinger Bands for 2009.
Chart 7 is the weekly S&P 500 with 40 week moving average and Bollinger Bands from 2005.
Chart 8 shows the weekly S&P 500 with the MACD indicator from 2002.
Chart 9 compares the current cycle of the daily S&P 500 to the top in 1937.
Chart 10 compares the current cycle of the daily S&P 500 to the top in 1938.
Chart 11 compares the current cycle of the daily S&P 500 to the top in 2000.
Chart 12 compares the current cycle of the daily S&P 500 to the bottom in 1932.
Chart 13 compares the current cycle of the daily S&P 500 to the bottom in 1974.
Chart 14 compares the current cycle of the daily S&P 500 to the bottom in 1982.
Chart 15 compares the current cycle of the daily S&P 500 to the bottom in 2003.
Chart 16 and two tables discuss the 32 week return cycle of the S&P Composite from 1929.
Chart 17 is the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve, this week, 4 weeks ago and 52 weeks ago.
Chart 18 is the Real U.S. Treasury Yield Curve, this week, 4 weeks ago and 52 weeks ago.
Chart 19 shows the daily 3 month LIBOR yield, 3 month U.S. Treasury yields and the spread between the two from 2007.
Chart 20 shows the daily 1 year LIBOR yield, 1 year U.S. Treasury yields and the spread between the two from 2007.
Chart 21 shows the daily Moody's Aaa yield, the Long-term U.S. Treasury yield and the spread between the two from 2007.
Chart 22 shows the daily Moody's Baa yield, the Long-term U.S. Treasury yield and the spread between the two from 2007.
Chart 23 shows the daily Moody's Baa yield, Moody's Aaa yield and the spread between the two from 2007.
Chart 24 is a swing chart of the daily U.S. Dollar Index (DX) from the March, 2008 low.
Table 6 summarizes recent price action for spot commodities and commodity indexes.
Chart 25 is Daily Crude Oil from 2002.
Chart 26 is a relative chart comparing the S&P GSCI and the Reuters/CRB Continuous Futures Index from 1991.
Chart 27 is Daily Cocoa from 2002.
Charts 28 through 30 review Retail Sales from 1992.
Chart 31 reviews various Consumer Price Indexes.
Chart 32 is the Purchasing Power of the Consumer Dollar from 1914.
Chart 33 reviews Industrial Production from 1919.
Chart 34 reviews Real GDP and Industrial Production from 1949.
Chart 35 is Capacity Utilization from 1968.
Chart 36 is Market Capitalization as a % of Nominal GDP since 1925.
Chart 37 is current receipts, expenditures and surplus/deficit of the U.S. Government from 1981.
Chart 38 is Gross Federal Debt from 1925.
Chart 39 is Gross Federal Debt and Gross Federal Debt as a % of Nominal GDP from 1925.
Chart 40 is Bank Failures reported weekly by FDIC since mid-2008.

For the Weekly Scoreboard in .pdf format, click here.

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Chart 4

Chart 5

Chart 6

Chart 7

Chart 8

Chart 9

Chart 10

Chart 11

Chart 12

Chart 13

Chart 14

Chart 15

The current rally of the S&P 500 Composite has lasted 32 weeks from the March print low (666.79) to the print high (1,096.56) this past week. The percentage move of 64.45% seemed to us to be one of the more spectacular moves up in such a relatively short time frame. So, we went to work and did a few calculations. The Table below summarizes the 50 highest 32 week returns from print low to print high since 1929.

32 week Returns

The following chart is a graphic representation of all 32 week returns since 1929. We have highlighted five cycles in the table above: four previous cycles are highlighted in blue and the current cycle is highlighted in red. Those same five cycles are labeled in Chart 16 below. We have been showing analog charts of the four previous cycles for some time (Charts 9 and 10 above are the 1937-38 cycle, Chart 12 above is the 1932 cycle, Chart 13 above is 1974 cycle and Chart 14 above is the 1982 cycle).

Chart 16

So, inquisitive minds probably want to know what kind of returns followed the peaks of the four previous cycles. The following table shows returns going forward for 12, 26, 39 and 52 weeks measuring from the print high to the print low for each of those time periods.