Week ending January 29, 2010

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We begin with the Weekly Scoreboard.
Table 1 summarizes recent price action for stock market indexes.
Table 2 summarizes how much of the bear market decline has been retraced for stock market indexes.
Table 3 summarizes various price projection levels for stock market indexes if 38.2%, 50% or 61.8% of the bear market decline is retraced.
Table 4 summarizes recent price action for the S&P GICS Sectors.
Table 5 summarizes how much of the bear market decline has been retraced for the S&P GICS Sectors.
Chart 1 is a swing chart of the daily S&P 500 since October 11, 2007.
Chart 2 is the daily S&P 500 and the S&P 500 advance-decline line since 2007.
Chart 3 is the daily S&P 500 and the % of S&P 500 stocks above their 200 day moving average from 2007.
Chart 4 is the daily S&P 500 and the % of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 day moving average from 2007.
Chart 5 is the daily S&P 500 with 21 day moving average and Bollinger Bands for 2009.
Chart 6 is the daily S&P 500 with 50 day moving average and Bollinger Bands for 2009.
Chart 7 is the weekly S&P 500 with 40 week moving average and Bollinger Bands from 2005.
Chart 8 shows the weekly S&P 500 with the MACD indicator from 2002.
Chart 9 compares the current cycle of the daily S&P 500 to the top in 1937.
Chart 10 compares the current cycle of the daily S&P 500 to the top in 1938.
Chart 11 compares the current cycle of the daily S&P 500 to the top in 2000.
Chart 12 compares the current cycle of the daily S&P 500 to the bottom in 1942.
Chart 13 compares the current cycle of the daily S&P 500 to the bottom in 1974.
Chart 14 compares the current cycle of the daily S&P 500 to the bottom in 1980.
Chart 15 compares the current cycle of the daily S&P 500 to the bottom in 1982.
Chart 16 compares the current cycle of the daily S&P 500 to the bottom in 2003.
Chart 17 is the weekly S&P 500 Composite with P/E based upon 5 year moving average of earnings from 1928.
Chart 18
Table 6 is the 1 year rate of return and 10 year rate of return for Stock Indexes, both price only and total return, sorted from best to worst.
Chart 19 is the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve, this week, 4 weeks ago and 52 weeks ago.
Chart 20 is the Real U.S. Treasury Yield Curve, this week, 4 weeks ago and 52 weeks ago.
Chart 21 shows the daily 3 month LIBOR yield, 3 month U.S. Treasury yields and the spread between the two from 2007.
Chart 22 shows the daily 1 year LIBOR yield, 1 year U.S. Treasury yields and the spread between the two from 2007.
Chart 23 shows the daily Moody's Aaa yield, the Long-term U.S. Treasury yield and the spread between the two from 2007.
Chart 24 shows the daily Moody's Baa yield, the Long-term U.S. Treasury yield and the spread between the two from 2007.
Chart 25 shows the daily Moody's Baa yield, Moody's Aaa yield and the spread between the two from 2007.
Table 7 is the 1 year rate of return and 10 year rate of return for Bond Indexes, total return, sorted from best to worst.
Chart 26 is a swing chart of the daily U.S. Dollar Index (DX) from the March, 2008 low.
Chart 27 shows the weekly U.S. Dollar Index (DX) with the MACD indicator from 2005.
Chart 28 is the Weekly Euro with moving averages from 2001.
Table 8 summarizes recent price action for spot commodities and commodity indexes.
Chart 29 compares the current cycle of daily Gold to cycles in 2005-6 and 2007-8.
Chart 30 is the monthly S&P 500/ Crude Oil Ratio from 1970.
Chart 31 is the monthly S&P 500/ Gold Ratio from 1970.
Chart 32 is monthly Sugar from 1901.
Table 9 is 1 year rate of return and 10 year rate of return for Spot Commodities and Spot Commodity Indexes sorted from best to worst.
Charts 33 through 36 are charts of Real GDP and its components since 1947.
Charts 37 and 38 are Employment Cost Indexes from 1983.
Chart 39 is the S&P/Case Shiller Composite Home Price Indices updated through November, 2009.
Chart 40 is Bank Failures reported weekly by FDIC since mid-2008.

For the Weekly Scoreboard in .pdf format, click here.

For the Monthly Scoreboard in .pdf format, click here.

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Chart 4

Chart 5

Chart 6

Chart 7

Chart 8

Chart 9

Chart 10

Chart 11

Chart 12

Chart 13

Chart 14

Chart 15

Chart 16

Chart 17

Chart 18

Table 6

Chart 19

Chart 20

Chart 21

Chart 22

Chart 23

Chart 24

Chart 25

Table 7

Chart 26

Chart 27

Chart 28

Table 8

Chart 29

Chart 30

Chart 31

Chart 32

Table 9

Chart 33

Chart 34

Chart 35

Chart 36

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics news release on the EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX - DECEMBER 2009:

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending
December 2009, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Both components of compensation--wages and salaries
(which make up about 70 percent of compensation) and benefits (which make up the remaining 30 percent of compensation)--
increased the same amount, 0.5 percent.

Civilian Worker Data (see Chart )

     Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.5 percent for the 12-month period ending December 2009. This
was smaller than the 2.6 percent increase for the 12-month period ending in December 2008. Wages and salaries also
increased 1.5 percent for the current 12-month period, slowing from a 2.7 percent increase for the 12-month period
ending in December 2008. Benefit costs rose 1.5 percent, compared with a 2.2 percent increase for the 12-month period
ending December 2008.

Private Industry Worker Data (see Chart )

     Compensation costs increased 1.2 percent, the same as last quarter's 12-month percent increase. These are the
smallest percent changes published since the series began in 1979. The wage and salary series increased 1.4 percent for
the current 12-month period, the same as the September 2009 12-month percent increase. These are also the smallest
published percent changes since the series began in 1975. The cost of benefits increased 1.0 percent for the 12-month
period ending December 2009. This is the smallest published percent change since the series began in 1979. In September
2009, benefits increased 1.1 percent. Employer costs for health benefits increased 4.4 percent for the 12-month period
ending December 2009. In December 2008, the 12-month percent change was 3.5 percent.

Chart 37

Chart 38

Chart 39

Chart 40

That's it for this week....

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